If a time traveler were to check into Morning Musume '23...

[sadude]

A purely hypothetical scenario: let's say that a time traveler from about 15 years ago was suddenly teleported to November 2023, and they check out present-day Hello! Project.

What's the current state of Hello! Project? What has happened in the past 15 years?
[Beyond the info that can easily be looked up on various wikis, of course.]

I have some specific elements I think would be interesting to address, but for now I've left it vague and open-ended.

[JPope]

15 years is an interesting launching point because it's the cusp of the Platinum Era, meaning the time-traveling harowota would've missed two major musical shifts and multiple full generations in MM alone. They'd likely be surprised at the resurgence in sales across H!P, especially once they grasp how far streaming audio has advanced. But where the fuck is Tsunku?

I could go on and on, but I don't want to bogart the topic from everyone else.

[Solarblade]

Probably also that the girls proper in H!P 15 years ago all have in '23 graduated so they'd be like who are ALL OF THESE GIRLS!

[Shoujo Q]

I hope they go back home and warn Tsunku to check on his health. He might still have a voice.

But most obvious, they would be surprised at Fukumura for sure. I’d be surprised at Karin too. I was just watching an old Dohhh Up clip from one of their shows and Karin was such a baby! And then she just released her next single this week and it was so good. I’d be so proud of her and how far she has come if nothing else.

And speaking of, I’d wonder what ever happened to Dohhh Up?! They had such good content that just isn’t seen much on YouTube. Especially in regards to the Eggs/Kensushei.

[sadude]

two major musical shifts

Tell me more! What brought on the shifts? What did it shift from and to?

multiple full generations in MM alone.

Probably also that the girls proper in H!P 15 years ago all have in '23 graduated so they'd be like who are ALL OF THESE GIRLS!

But most obvious, they would be surprised at Fukumura for sure. I’d be surprised at Karin too. I was just watching an old Dohhh Up clip from one of their shows and Karin was such a baby! And then she just released her next single this week and it was so good. I’d be so proud of her and how far she has come if nothing else.

Member changes are a given; it's not surprising that there's no one left in H!P that this person would recognize. It's impossible to look at current groups and members and get a sense of how they're viewed now, what their role is, and how they've evolved since they've debuted. But it's an opportunity: no baggage with current members, and a fresh perspective to check out current state H!P, starting with the music.

They'd likely be surprised at the resurgence in sales across H!P, especially once they grasp how far streaming audio has advanced.

This was one of the elements I wanted to hit on-- how's H!P doing as a business? Has the business model changed, especially as the way people consume media has changed? Why/how have sales gone up? How do they count streams vs. sales?

But where the fuck is Tsunku?

What do you mean by this? I see him in the latest MM single song credits.
On Tsunku, since you bring him up: given he stepped away as H!P general manager in 2014-ish, has that affected MM auditions and members? Are the new people in charge selecting new members differently than how Tsunku would've done it?

I hope they go back home and warn Tsunku to check on his health. He might still have a voice.

Was it not him on Suggoi Fever?

And speaking of, I’d wonder what ever happened to Dohhh Up?! They had such good content that just isn’t seen much on YouTube. Especially in regards to the Eggs/Kensushei.

I did write down Dohhh UP! as one of the things to ask about.
It seemed questionable at the time to start their own streaming platform with bad quality Flash videos, so not surprised it was shut down.

[Shoujo Q]

I hope they go back home and warn Tsunku to check on his health. He might still have a voice.

Was it not him on Suggoi Fever?

It was Matsubara Ken. Tsunku does some notes when he releases songs and he mentioned who it was. https://note.tsunku.net/n/nb60aaf7fa973

[DonJuan]

On Tsunku, since you bring him up: given he stepped away as H!P general manager in 2014-ish, has that affected MM auditions and members? Are the new people in charge selecting new members differently than how Tsunku would've done it?

I'd say yes, and the most striking point to me is that he barely ever talks about 12th gen to 14th gen (Ogata Haruna, Nonaka Miki, Makino Maria, Haga Akane, Kaga Kaede, Yokoyama Reina, Morito Chisaki). If anything he just started to talk about the group/members (9th-11th gen aside) again around the time 15th gen joined. I'd say he's been pretty detached for several years.

Personally, I think there's members Tsunku himself would not have chosen, mostly because they did not really improve in the group, like Kaede and Chisaki. They joined the group at a time where they've already settled down on a style. Also, we had a high amount of KSS (or in Chisaki's case someone from the agency) in that time. I think Tsunku usually went more for the surprise from the streets, the girl next door - like Kanon, Masaki. Even with the newer generations I don't think there's real surprises here. Kitagawa Rio was already a very collected and ambitious girl when she joined (though in that aspect maybe a bit like Riho, while being completely different from her in others), Yamazaki Mei was a (Hokkaido) KSS. Okamura Homare probably comes around the closest to a classic Tsunku pick from that generation.
The newer two gens, Sakurai Rio as well as Inoue Haruka and Yumigeta Ako, I still can't really categorize. Rairi (Sakurai Rio's nickname) seems to be confident and has a great expression game going on, Inoue was extremely nervous and stiff in the beginning (and I haven't really watched the newest performances to see if she's gotten more relaxed). Getta (Yumigeta Ako's nickname) might be another wildcard.

Picking up on the topic of sales:
Loooots of events. Before covid it was handshake events, now it's streams where they show the girls putting their autograph on the CDs when you bought the CD set and answering some questions from fans. I think Oricon counts Youtube streams to a certain amount nowadays, but not really the total numbers. I haven't really looked into sales or rankings in some time, though.
Up Front has suffered a lot during covid because their biggest money maker were the tours, and empty audience concerts or half-booked venues (due to spacing the audience) probably cost them a lot of money. Personally I think it's obvious by the fact that the girls wear their concert outfits for several tours now, both their group as well as H!P tours. What I do know is that some fans are pretty pissed that Morning Musume gets basically no funding despite having the best sales, but their MVs are about the most boring in H!P
In general though I think we're lucky that Up Front only has their idols as a side-gig, otherwise we'd have gone down.
Other than that, Up Front as a business has not really changed. In fact I think they're about the most conservative company in idol business, being really slow to pick up on trends and media. There's barely any possibility for the girls to show variety skills (Tsubaki Factory has a TV show and some girls are doing a bit on their Youtube channels but it's really litte) and there's no will to promote the girls otherwise.
This discussion has died down a bit, but I remember a lot of people complaining about how little Up Front does compared to other agencies. Well, I guess at least they care for their girls properly.

Adding this here: You might be surprised about the release schedule. It sucks. Most groups get two singles a year at maximum. Yes, some of these are triple a-sides but I'm sure most people would take more releases with single a-sides and a throwaway b-side over what's going on now. My current favourite groups are Juice=Juice and Beyooooonds, and Beyooooonds have gotten the REALLY short stick - they've been around since 2019 and have only gotten 4 singles so far. 2 albums fortunately, but ugh.

That being said, welcome back!

[kira]

Berrykyu graduation, for one.

15 years ago would have been around the time I got into H!P so elder club graduation as well. H!P just had a 25th anniversary concert, saw some old members come back which was nice.

At the very least the music videos aren't dance shot/close up against a boring background anymore.

Adding the year to Morning Musume's name was a weird one, I remember being confused by that.

[Shoujo Q]

Oh! Not H!P, but Sayumi being a soloist and releasing music would be pretty wild to find out.

[sadude]

On Tsunku, since you bring him up: given he stepped away as H!P general manager in 2014-ish, has that affected MM auditions and members? Are the new people in charge selecting new members differently than how Tsunku would've done it?

I'd say yes, and the most striking point to me is that he barely ever talks about 12th gen to 14th gen (Ogata Haruna, Nonaka Miki, Makino Maria, Haga Akane, Kaga Kaede, Yokoyama Reina, Morito Chisaki). If anything he just started to talk about the group/members (9th-11th gen aside) again around the time 15th gen joined. I'd say he's been pretty detached for several years.

Wow, interesting. Has Tsunku being detached from post-11th gen affected their popularity and how the fans perceive them?

[Lots of fascinating stuff about Tsunku not choosing members, sales, and the business side of H!P]

Great to read this, thanks! I don't have anything specific to add here, but didn't want to just ignore this.

There's barely any possibility for the girls to show variety skills (Tsubaki Factory has a TV show and some girls are doing a bit on their Youtube channels but it's really litte) and there's no will to promote the girls otherwise.

I had wondered if there were any TV shows or radio shows for H!P members to express themselves and show variety skills.
What's the role of social media for the H!P girls nowadays? Do they have personal Youtube / Instagram channels, blogs, or podcasts, or is that not allowed? I found a bunch of official Instagram pages, but they seem super controlled. (I just took a cursory glance, not really enough for an informed opinion especially from a non-Instagram user, hence asking here).

Also on the topic of social media: What's the role of social media for Japanese fans / communities? What about for overseas fans?

Adding this here: You might be surprised about the release schedule. It sucks. Most groups get two singles a year at maximum. Yes, some of these are triple a-sides but I'm sure most people would take more releases with single a-sides and a throwaway b-side over what's going on now.

I've been curious as to why there have been so many triple A-sides. I kind of like it-- it gives people more songs and PVs to savor and contrast at once instead of just one main song every few months in a drip pattern. Plus, going back to what you had said earlier about UF caring for their girls properly: maybe it's better for the members to not be in the constant singles cycle?

Oh! Not H!P, but Sayumi being a soloist and releasing music would be pretty wild to find out.

I'm confused about soloists in H!P (and H!P-adjacent), but I wonder how much of this is due to how UF is structured as well as how the H!P wiki is organized. Are there any main soloists left? Have so many girls graduated that it doesn't make sense to focus on and market just one or a few main soloists?

Throwing out one last thing I had been pondering: Has the continued global rise of K-pop affected J-pop and H!P? This could be either in terms of how H!P is produced and its music written, or in terms of making people worldwide more curious and open about music coming from Japan.
I know there have been a small handful of H!P concerts overseas; I'm curious how those were received and if they'll continue post-pandemic.

[Shoujo Q]

H!P has gotten a lot more girl fans over the years.
They've also started to do more festivals than in previous years.
People complain they are slow to evolve. But if I was an international time-traveler the stuff I would find would wow me non the less.
Youtube Channels for all the groups, WITH whole music videos!? Their music (though some of it's missing) on Apple Music!? Yes please! Thank you UF!

It's a miracle you can find their music on Apple Music and have active Youtube accounts, but they wont embrace Spotify.

I'm not sure how much covid effected them long term, but they weathered it pretty good by showcasing all the girls with concerts and tv shows. Solo Fes! was such a great concept for H!P (each girl picked a song, created their own outfit and performed and where judged by their peers) to touch upon and I WISH they still continued to do them.

A whole Cover concert series of songs that weren't their own, for fans who wanted to see them branch out into other songs that weren't H!P. It was such a sort time period that produced a lot of good content. (2020-2022).

Currently H!P's big show is Hello Dream. It was a showcase for just the Kenshuusei, but now it's more for H!P in general since the kenshuusei are now limited to 3 plus the Unit.

The restructuring of the Kenshuusei from Eggs was much better if I'm honest with you. You get to actually learn about the girls and root for their debut.

---

There is a large international social media community but it's been separated into Discord / X-Twitter. The only message boards worth mention today (aside from our own), are J!PLop (which is very active and AMPED is amazing at putting up to date info up daily), Hello!Online, which lost it's bitorrent (that is now aidoru!online) but still has their picture dump and lastly, JPHip (a member but haven't posted in years).

UF started to embrace TikTok, Instagram and you can see girls popping up more and more on there outside of their amebo blogs. X/Twitter is run solely by management so there's no one on one fan interaction there. You also have a few english speakers in H!P now so getting messages to girls is a little bit easier. Which is nice. I realized I never made a social media dump page for the H!P girls, just the OG Girls, which hasn't been updated in awhile. I should go do that at some point.

---

Also to note, since the BBS has come back, I've been doing yearly Updates of all H!P relevant news. (2021/2022) I'm currently working on 2023 so expect to see that at some point in January.

But all relevant information can be found on the H!P Fan Wiki (not the normal Wiki) which is amazing in every way. There's still some info from decades past that is missing, but working with what you can and filling in the rest with your own experiences.

[Solarblade]

I'm confused about soloists in H!P (and H!P-adjacent), but I wonder how much of this is due to how UF is structured as well as how the H!P wiki is organized. Are there any main soloists left? Have so many girls graduated that it doesn't make sense to focus on and market just one or a few main soloists?

Throwing out one last thing I had been pondering: Has the continued global rise of K-pop affected J-pop and H!P? This could be either in terms of how H!P is produced and its music written, or in terms of making people worldwide more curious and open about music coming from Japan.
I know there have been a small handful of H!P concerts overseas; I'm curious how those were received and if they'll continue post-pandemic.

There isn't any current soloists under H!P, hasn't been since Erina Mano. I assume that whoever in UFP doesn't believe in soloists anymore for H!P. Though we do get solo songs, but majority of the time they're graduation songs! Which, yeah a lot of members get solo songs when they graduate, most of the time it's a cover of another H!P track, but quite a few have gotten original compositions (I would argue it's due to tenure, but that's just me).

Actually, digital songs have become a thing, it's died down a little but a few years ago, they were pretty rampant for a while.

[DonJuan]

Wow, interesting. Has Tsunku being detached from post-11th gen affected their popularity and how the fans perceive them?

Hm, not really. I'd say some long-time fans might have noticed something, but it did not really mirror their popularity. For example, Maria is one of the top sellers right now and might be considered the most popular member since Masaki's graduation (she does a lot of gravure work and is on TV and radio shows quite often due to being a baseball super fan), Kaede was pretty damn popular and Chisaki too. 12th gen in general had a rough start, but that's mostly due to managing fails imo (they've been put in the back forever while 9th to 11th gen had their big high). They're doing decently well nowadays, though Akane is still dead last in popularity polls.

What's the role of social media for the H!P girls nowadays? Do they have personal Youtube / Instagram channels, blogs, or podcasts, or is that not allowed? I found a bunch of official Instagram pages, but they seem super controlled. (I just took a cursory glance, not really enough for an informed opinion especially from a non-Instagram user, hence asking here).

During the pandemic, Beyooooonds did a little "youtube school" thing where they taught the audience about things they were interested in (for example, Okamura Minami had videos about chemistry, Shimakura Rika about dinosaurs, etc.).
While there are group accounts for Youtube and Tiktok the girls do have personal blogs and instagram accounts, but they're super controlled, probably even more than the blogs the Platinum era girls had. The instagram channels are basically shortened blog posts, they upload a few photos and comment on them.
When it comes to Up Front/H!P's big youtube accounts they do have a few intersting things on them, like recording sessions (for both vocals and instrumentals) or the girls doing covers or duets. But there's really not much about variety there. They do a cooking show every now and then.

Plus, going back to what you had said earlier about UF caring for their girls properly: maybe it's better for the members to not be in the constant singles cycle?

Yeah, kinda. They're in constant tour cycle, though.

Are there any main soloists left? Have so many girls graduated that it doesn't make sense to focus on and market just one or a few main soloists?

As Solarblade has said, there are no soloists in H!P. There are under Up Front, though! It's mostly graduated H!P members, like Miyamoto Karin and Ogata Risa. Natsuyaki Miyabi is also there, but she hasn't released anything solo yet, same with Tanaka Reina. Sayumi has indeed released some music and done her own show with theater and magic tricks. Many graduated members are part of the fanclub m-line which does a lot of concerts nowadays.

Throwing out one last thing I had been pondering: Has the continued global rise of K-pop affected J-pop and H!P? This could be either in terms of how H!P is produced and its music written, or in terms of making people worldwide more curious and open about music coming from Japan.

Kinda. H!P stays more true to themselves, and the other big idol companies do their own thing as well. But newer groups usually adopt Kpop style in terms of focusing on dance, being more perfected than watching your Jpop idol, and the production/marketing is more Kpop-like. One former H!P member, Kasahara Momona from ANGERME, is part of the idol survival show Produce 101 Japan The Girls which we are discussing in its own channel, and the show has *heavy* Kpop influences (to be fair, it's a sister show of a Korean original). But from what I've seen many young adult/teenage aged Japanese girls are very into Kpop and try to style themselves that way, too.
You could argue that the classic Jpop style is more directed towards traditional wota, while the Kpop style is directed towards a younger, more female audience.

I know there have been a small handful of H!P concerts overseas; I'm curious how those were received and if they'll continue post-pandemic.

There were plans to go to Russia (the most-eastern part though) in 2020 in a Russia-Japan friendship project, but it has been cancelled due to the pandemic. Beyooooonds has just performed in Thailand, though. In general, Thailand seems to be the go-to address nowadays, followed by Hong Kong and Taiwan. When it comes to concerts outside of Asia they seem to have found good connections in Mexico. The US on the other hand are pretty difficult to visit from what I've seen due to changes for international artists under Trump government - at least that's what people have said at that time. For example, Morning Musume could perform in the US because of connections and I think their concert was linked to a convention (Anime Matsuri?). Juice=Juice had initially announced the US as a stop for their world tour but never went there (without further explanation).

The Mexico concerts were quite popular. I was lucky to go to the Paris concert of ANGERME and the Juice=Juice one in Germany and... well. The German one was pretty damn small and the hall near empty, and the Paris one was badly organized. I wouldn't be surprised if Europe is not on their list for the next few years.