Maji desu ka SUKA! : The Thread!

[Anderei]

Sales might dip, but not to the point where I think it'll be mind-blowing.

[Gerald]

[quote name='Milly' timestamp='1302590942' post='97069']

Eri was popular with the wotas and Junjun and Linlin were well liked. It wouldn't be fair to expect 4 kids (as cute as they are) to have amassed a similar fan base in a mere 3 months. I say total sales similar to Seishun Collection are a more realistic target for the new Morning Musume.



The real challenge will be whether they can keep sales up after Ai-chan leaves.

[/quote]

Yes but Seishun Collection ranks 43 out of 44 on sales so that would be really bad news and the 9th Gen seem to have had a lot of publicity (for MM that is) so I would have thought UFA would want at least 10/12% increase on normal sales and that might be conservative.



If the 9th Gen don't boost MM's appeal what's the point of fucking about with the line-up.

[strawberryjam]

9th gen is an investment. They make not rake in the mula now, but hopefully, they eventually will. <img src='http://mm-bbs.org/public/style_emoticon ... umbsup.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> I doubt Eri, Jun, and Lin were raking in the big money first single. Not that I know, but it does take time to build up a sizeable fanbase. <img src='http://mm-bbs.org/public/style_emoticon ... hahaha.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':hahaha:' /> Either way, it's hard to attribute if increased/decreased sales were due to THEM. There's lots of other things to factor in.



Anyways, I expect sales to be same or abysmal. I'm used to it now. And I don't like this song. <img src='http://mm-bbs.org/public/style_emoticon ... hawhaw.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':hawhaw:' />

[Ap2000]

[quote name='The Turtle Moves' timestamp='1302609133' post='97076']



If the 9th Gen don't boost MM's appeal what's the point of fucking about with the line-up.

[/quote]



... and you're asking yourself this now ? In the ninth generation ? In the NINTH generation ?

MM has always also been about old girls leaving and new girls coming, that's the main concept.

[Pi Mako]

H!O is reporting first week sales to be 33,698 ;o

[Duncan]

That's about on track to be similar to Seishun Collection, but yeeesh!

[al kusanagi]

Fission Mailed.



So much for breathing new life into the group. Should have stuck handshake event tickets in it or something.

[eri]

Sales numbers are relative anyhow.



Also, north Japan almost sank into the ocean. There are other factors at play that might impact sales.

[tsukinobyouin]

At this point, no new generation is going to suddenly change MM's sales figures. They've been pretty steadily selling the same for a while now, save for a few dips and spikes here and there. Despite all of the member changes, the name "Morning Musume" is old. It's rare for idol groups to retain a large following for years and years - even some of the older Johnny's groups have seen sales dips as new, fresh faces come along. It's even more rare for a group to fade from the spotlight as much as MM has over the years and suddenly regain popularity again.



Really, as long as a new generation provides something to keep the current fans interested they've done as much as can be expected. I'm sure Turtle will complain that they've failed as far as he's concerned, but overall the reception to the 9th gen at this board has been pretty positive. Judging by the ranking of goods sales, it sounds like the Japanese fans like them too.

[Anderei]

Morning Musume probably hasn't been bringing in much money in terms of sales in a long time, anyway. Their main revenue probaby comes from concerts and merchandise.

[al kusanagi]

Well then do Kara and AKB singles come with free blowjobs or something, because they sure don't have trouble selling.



If their first new audition in years, one of their catchiest singles in years, and most promotion in years isn't enough to bring in new fans, then why even bother? They could just release a single of Reina farting into a wet paper bag and bring in the same numbers. Probably more, knowing all the fetishes catered to in Japan.



I'm really happy that HP is doing their own thing rather than cash in like other groups are doing, but, goddammit, I want the girls to be successful. Like Sayu said in her last DVD, people know the ghost of MM past and don't pay any attention to the group now beyond their name, and that sucks.

[momoirosaya]

[quote name='Al Kusanagi' timestamp='1302622846' post='97091']

Well then do Kara and AKB singles come with free blowjobs or something, because they sure don't have trouble selling.

[/quote]

It's simple. They're new. MM is old.

Although they started 5 years ago AKB only got really popular after RIVER 2 years ago, and only sold a million last year. They're popularity is still climbing, but day AKB's fandom will decline, and they know that. MM only started selling millions after 3 years. KARA is new too. The Hallyu wave just began last year. They've only been around for a year or so. While MM has been around for 13 years. (Also AKB single's do come with handshake event tickets, or sometimes two-shot tickets, but it's by lottery, so fans buy more CD's to try to get the tickets.)

[Gerald]

[quote name='TnB' timestamp='1302617675' post='97085']

I'm sure Turtle will complain that they've failed as far as he's concerned

[/quote]

Me? complain? I think you're confusing me with another Turtle <img src='http://mm-bbs.org/public/style_emoticon ... stling.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':whistling:' />.



[quote name='TnB' timestamp='1302617675' post='97085']

but overall the reception to the 9th gen at this board has been pretty positive. Judging by the ranking of goods sales, it sounds like the Japanese fans like them too.

[/quote]

Yes but sadly MMBS doesn't decide the sale figures and the ranking of goods doesn't matter, the only relevant thing is if they are selling noticeably more goods than Eri and JunLin were shifting.





[quote name='Al Kusanagi' timestamp='1302622846' post='97091']

Well then do Kara and AKB singles come with free blowjobs or something, because they sure don't have trouble selling.



If their first new audition in years, one of their catchiest singles in years, and most promotion in years isn't enough to bring in new fans, then why even bother? They could just release a single of Reina farting into a wet paper bag and bring in the same numbers. Probably more, knowing all the fetishes catered to in Japan.

[/quote]

I completely agree with Al, (now there's a phrase I never thought I would say <img src='http://mm-bbs.org/public/style_emoticon ... >/wink.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> ). I suppose UFA are saving money in salaries but otherwise the whole thing has been a waste of time.



Of course the other possibility is that the song is shit and the fans don't like it and a better song would have sold more.



Oh and they should have used the farting into a wet paper bag idea for Kusumi, it could only have been an improvement.







[quote name='Saya' timestamp='1302630051' post='97096']

It's simple. They're new. MM is old.

[/quote]



I'm no expert on JPop but hasn't Ayumi Hamasaki been around as long as MM and she's still pretty successful <img src='http://mm-bbs.org/public/style_emoticon ... umbsup.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />.

[Ap2000]

[quote name='The Turtle Moves' timestamp='1302630119' post='97097']



I'm no expert on JPop but hasn't Ayumi Hamasaki been around as long as MM and she's still pretty successful <img src='http://mm-bbs.org/public/style_emoticon ... umbsup.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />.

[/quote]



She's not selling millions anymore either.

Her last three singles were below 100k. Her last 500k single was "&" in 2003. Since then she's been pretty constantly going down.

She's been crapping out singles far more wide spread too. Only three in 2010.



And let's not forget that MM has been selling below 100k for 7 years now, starting with Roman my dear boy.

I've said this before the release of this and several other singles, no new members will ever make MM sell 100+k again.

Nanchatte Renai rightfully sold 70k and Iroppoi Jirettai 82k, both sold better than anything else since 2005.



Sources: Wikipedia.



There's no deeper meaning behind this. All musicians some day top out and then just lose sales and public's interest. It's just that MM exchanges members now and then.

It's a wonder MM was even able to sustain itself this long.

[Gerald]

[quote name='Ap2000' timestamp='1302632035' post='97098']

She's not selling millions anymore either.

Her last three singles were below 100k. Her last 500k single was "&" in 2003. Since then she's been pretty constantly going down.

[/quote]



Yes but only just below 100k which is still double MM and her last 25 singles have been No.1 which indicates her sales must be better than most other artists.





[quote name='Ap2000' timestamp='1302632035' post='97098']

There's no deeper meaning behind this. All musicians some day top out and then just lose sales and public's interest. It's just that MM exchanges members now and then.

It's a wonder MM was even able to sustain itself this long.

[/quote]



Again I don't know about Japan but there are any number of international acts that are huge and have been for years: Madonna, Kylie Minogue, Rolling Stones, U2, Michael Jackson (dead or alive), REM, The Beatles (even though they broke up 40 years ago) etc. etc.

[momoirosaya]

^ I think a big reason MM sales declined is also because of the member changes. All those other groups you've mentioned have kept the same members, or are a solo artist so they can't really change members there.



I was talking to some guy from Japan once and I said something about MM, and he was like "Ah Abe Natsumi!" even though she's been gone for years. With each member change MM turns into a different MM since the girls are different.

[Ap2000]

[quote name='The Turtle Moves' timestamp='1302636598' post='97104']



Again I don't know about Japan but there are any number of international acts that are huge and have been for years: Madonna, Kylie Minogue, Rolling Stones, U2, Michael Jackson (dead or alive), REM, The Beatles (even though they broke up 40 years ago) etc. etc.

[/quote]



Those are international stars...

Boys and girls that have a lot of fans all over the world.



That kind of musicians are probably <2% of the musicians that release singles every year.

[Shoujo Q]

You know you really can't go by Oricon when it comes to numbers. Oricon only takes in a certain percentage of sales and then they don't even take into account online sales. But this has been said once, twice, three times before. Just the fact that they could hold onto anything above #5 with a chunk of new members is a good days work as long as UFA is concerned. I think the real test will be the next single since the public will have had time to adjust to the new members more then 3 months worth of adjustment.

[Gerald]

[quote name='PKyu' timestamp='1302641063' post='97111']

You know you really can't go by Oricon when it comes to numbers. Oricon only takes in a certain percentage of sales and then they don't even take into account online sales. But this has been said once, twice, three times before. Just the fact that they could hold onto anything above #5 with a chunk of new members is a good days work as long as UFA is concerned. I think the real test will be the next single since the public will have had time to adjust to the new members more then 3 months worth of adjustment.

[/quote]

Yes but even if Oricon only shows 50% of the total sales presumably the same thing applies to all the other acts in the charts so the relative position of MM would still be the same.



Worst case scenario: UFA sure as hell isn't making much money out of singles/albums for any of the H!P groups so we are back to concerts/merchandising for profit. If MM continues to slide inexorably downhill the concert audiences will decline reducing profits until UFA decide to pull the plug and maybe start again with something more in tune with current popular acts.



I can't see there is anyway the 9th Gen is going to pull in more fans if they haven't done it already. They are on a law of diminishing returns, the longer they are there the less publicity they garner until they are back to the standard MM level. Arguably any new fans they attract will be offset by the fans that leave because of Eri, JunLin and shortly Ai leaving. I don't really see how the public can adjust anymore especially if they don't see much more on the 9th Gen.

[tsukinobyouin]

[quote name='The Turtle Moves' timestamp='1302636598' post='97104']

[quote name='Ap2000' timestamp='1302632035' post='97098']

She's not selling millions anymore either.

Her last three singles were below 100k. Her last 500k single was "&" in 2003. Since then she's been pretty constantly going down.

[/quote]



Yes but only just below 100k which is still double MM and her last 25 singles have been No.1 which indicates her sales must be better than most other artists.[/quote]



Hamasaki Ayumi is not an idol. The original point I made was about idol groups, which tend to be much more of a "flavor of the month" product than pop divas like Ayu. Comparing Morning Musume to international legends like The Beatles and The Rolling Stones is just absurd. Even in their top sales days, MM never came close to the fame of those groups.



But on top of that, being No. 1 on Oricon reaaally doesn't mean a lot. Most of the time when people are talking about Japanese artists' singles "hitting #1", they mean for the day - the same single could easily be #4 by the end of the week. The record companies very carefully choose release dates that minimize competition so their artists will get #1, which sounds fancy. Keep in mind, MM's last #1 single was Shouganai Yume Oibito - which had first week sales of 47,528. Their next single Nanchatte Renai, sold 54,973 in its first week, but only made #2. Way back in the day, Furusato sold 102,750 in it's first week and only made it to #5. As PKyu said, Oricon is a tricky bastard and often doesn't tell the whole story.





[quote name='The Turtle Moves' timestamp='1302646757' post='97117']

I can't see there is anyway the 9th Gen is going to pull in more fans if they haven't done it already. They are on a law of diminishing returns, the longer they are there the less publicity they garner until they are back to the standard MM level. Arguably any new fans they attract will be offset by the fans that leave because of Eri, JunLin and shortly Ai leaving. I don't really see how the public can adjust anymore especially if they don't see much more on the 9th Gen.

[/quote]



I think you're exaggerating the popularity of EriJunLin, but the section I bolded pretty much exactly states my original point, just in a different tone. Old girls leave, new girls come in, but the MM sales stay about the same. As long as they can continue to please the fanbase they have, they aren't going anywhere. As Al said, it's sad to see these girls not get the recognition they deserve, but that's just the way things are. =/





And to reiterate a good point by Eri that got lost in the debate, Japan just had a major natural disaster. They've got bigger things to worry about than who's in MM's 9th generation and whether or not they're worth paying attention to.

[rob]

TnB is right, Japanese people LOVE LOVE LOOOOOVE new things, flavour of the month is like Japan's motto.



You can see this kind of FOTM attitude in the constant "Campaigns" that companies have.



The high sales for acts like AKB and Kara aren't millions of wota, they are the pre-teen and teenage girls that like them because they are new.



I mentioned Morning Musume to my class of 6th grade students, which would make them.... 12? something like that, they said "Aren't all the members in MM really old?"



I said... "What.. the new members are 12-14"



.... silence.....



"Have you seen the new AKB single......"



me.... facepalm.



The reason MM sold so many copies back in the "Golden Era" is because they tapped the above young girl market.



ANYWAY... who gives a shit about sales figures anyway, even if I was the only one who bought a copy of the single I'd still be happy because they are producing happy positive music that makes my rainy days turn sunny and to me, that's all that matters.

[al kusanagi]

The problem is THIS IS AN ALL NEW MORNING MUSUME!!!



Half the damn group is brand new, and the other half no one besides the fans know.

[momoirosaya]

Being a teenage girl myself, I actually like AKB more than MM right now. *hides*

I also like S/mileage more than MM right now. I realized this when I decided I'd wait to buy Majisuka till it it goes on sale like I did with OOLG, but would be willing (and want to) get the new S/mileage and AKB releases right away. Although I've only been into H!P for 3 years, I kinda feel like MM is old, and S/mileage and AKB are newer which makes them more interesting. I still love MM a lot though of course.

[rob]

The members have changed but the group isn't new.



I still think things look positive for MM because Riho is getting quite a big push, once Ai graduates I think Riho might take most of the centres.



She certainly has that "X-factor" the only other possibility is Kanon's funny side attracting people maybe.



Either way, with the whole earthquake stuff going on right now, I'm literally AMAZED that they have sold as many copies as they have, I was secretly thinking it could be the lowest selling single ever, it would have been easy for it to fly under the radar.



If MM are going to push back to 100k sales, it's going to be all on Riho,

Also sayumi as the most famous member needs to graduate out of this poison tongue character of hers, I don't think it helps the group much tbh.



P.S. How many of us actually bought a copy before we start moaning about low sales figures....

[al kusanagi]

Well, shit, HAD they released it last week they would have had great sales, but if the earthquake can be blamed for sales, then would KARA have sold 1 million this week? Because 120,000 + doesn't look like natural disaster numbers.



And with all the HP stuff now internationally available on itunes, there should be a damn person calling themselves fans that don't get them. It's a dollar and it enforces that an international market is out there.

[momoirosaya]

[quote name='Al Kusanagi' timestamp='1302672300' post='97143']

And with all the HP stuff now internationally available on itunes, there should be a damn person calling themselves fans that don't get them. It's a dollar and it enforces that an international market is out there.

[/quote]

I prefer buying the actual CD rather than a digital download, I'm sure there are other people like this too.

[al kusanagi]

It's a DOLLAR!!! If you can afford overpriced Japanese singles with shipping that costs almost the same, you can afford both. You get the download the day of and the single arrives however many days later.

[rob]

As I mentioned earlier, KARA and AKB are FOTM so things like the earthquake aren't going to stop their sales as they are well known already, what I was suggesting is that it's possible people would have less interest in new members of mm while 20k people are dead...



With my wife HATING anything H!P related I can't buy the physical singles but I always buy the download from itunes.

[momoirosaya]

[quote name='rob' timestamp='1302676096' post='97150']

As I mentioned earlier, KARA and AKB are FOTM so things like the earthquake aren't going to stop their sales as they are well known already, what I was suggesting is that it's possible people would have less interest in new members of mm while 20k people are dead...

[/quote]

Although this probably has little to do with it, KARA is donating all the profits from their new single "Jet Coaster Love" to the victims, and AKB is donating part of their profits.

[Tsuki]

[quote name='Saya' timestamp='1302676234' post='97151']

[quote name='Al Kusanagi' timestamp='1302672961' post='97146']

It's a DOLLAR!!! If you can afford overpriced Japanese singles with shipping that costs almost the same, you can afford both. You get the download the day of and the single arrives however many days later.

[/quote]

I like to have the actual case and it comes with a picture, and a dvd, and I like to play CD's on my CD player as well. I'd rather physically own something, than own it...virtually?? Plus lots of singles come with posters or photobooks nowadays so I like to have those to stick in my idol goods folder under my bed.

Lots of times I play CD's that I have since they're right next to me in my drawer, but I'm 90% less likely to listen to it on the computer unless it's been stuck in my head all day I've listened to Short Cut a million times since I have the CD but if I'm on the computer I'll listen to the song that I'm obsessed with lately. I like randomly taking out a CD and being like "I haven't listened to this in a while!" Rather than going through the thousands of songs in my iTunes library. It's just my personal taste/choice. I've always been like this when it comes to download vs physical object, whether it's a game, movie, book, cd...

[/quote]

Er, you did read he said you can probably afford both, right?