Who's next to leave Morning Musume - 2016 edition

[JPope]

We really probably should make this an annual thread.

[DonJuan]

Some people are super nervous about Masaki dropping hints here and there (some weird dream she had, her saying she wants to graduate at age 18 (which would be... next year?), the next tour having Hokkaido as last date (at the moment; for sure they're gonna add another date at some bigger location)...
 
I guess Masaki won't be someone who stays for 10 years, but personally I'd go the traditional way of nominating the oldest: Haruna.
Oh, my heart.

[Mukuro]

Iikubo or bust.

[Elpis]

I'm thinking either Iikubo or Masaki. I can see Erina leaving in the future as well.

[JPope]

So I forgot to make the poll multiple choice at first. It is now, but I have no idea how to limit it to two choices. 

Iikubo has to be next based on her age. She'll be 22 in November.
 
Ikuta has to be next because I WANT TO BELIEVE.

[AquaChan]

Ikuta or Iikubo. or 12th gen 

[al kusanagi]

I love her, but I can totally see Masaki just not giving a fuck and stop showing up to work one day.

[showraniy]

Masaki or Ayumi, just 'cause.


I've got a feeling.

[DonJuan]

[quote="AquaChan"]
Ikuta or Iikubo. or 12th gen 
[/quote]
 
All of them?

[JPope]

[quote="DonJuan"]
 
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="AquaChan" data-cid="198353" data-time="1466539291">
<div>
Ikuta or Iikubo. or 12th gen 
[/quote]
 
All of them?
 
</div>
</blockquote>
 
If you're gonna dream, dream big.

[momoirosaya]

I love Eripon and Maachan and do not want them to leave. I figure Harunan just because she's the oldest.

[WonderBuono]

I'm ought to make a campaign called "Ogata's Gotta (Gata?) Go".
 
That will be my only vote until she finally leaves.

[Noa]

Ikuta and Iikubo please.

[mrsross]

Mizuki may finally be the next to leave, but I'm guessing someone from 10th gen will leave this time. Probably Ikubo.

[sayu1991]

You guys are going to make me cry with all of the Maa-chan guesses. ????

I guessed either Iikubo or, oddly Kudo. I guessed Iikubo for the typical reason of how old she is. I also just have some weird feeling about Haruka. Although wishful thinking goes to Erina...I never wanted her to join in the first place ahaha

[Derby]

I voted for Iikubo as for someone to be expected to graduate and for Ishida for somebody who would be unnexpected...

[TicTacAnyone]

I feel like Maa-chan will leave only if she has another avenue for herself, sort of like Reina. She's a girl that needs something to keep her occupied, focused and that gives her a good challenge. I can't see her dropping out just to go to college, so I don't think it's her time next year yet. We'll see.
Ikuta seems she'll go the more pro-athlete route somehow, or maybe model. Any way, I feel she's free to leave at any time she chooses and it won't affect her either way.
Iikubo has a life of fashion, manga, modelling and possibly just settling down she could do. Same as Erina, either way won't change her whole life.
I think Mizuki will stay until 12th gen/13th gen is more established....
 
So my guess is difficult to say, but I'm guessing Ikuta or Oda, actually.

[JPope]

[quote="Sayu"]
I guessed either Iikubo or, oddly Kudo. 
[/quote]
 
I almost voted Kudo, based on how bad her voice has sounded recently. If she's blown it out for good, I can see her leaving, but I want to see how she sounds on the next single before considering that.

[Ap2000]

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="JPope" data-cid="198352" data-time="1466538130">Iikubo has to be next based on her age. She'll be 22 in November.</blockquote>
Whaaaaaaat.
Damn, 11th gen has been with MM for nearly 5 years already.

[yuzuriha]

I know I always say Masaki since she's my least favorite but she really is giving off vibes lately.  Including a blog entry recently (which I am too lazy to go try and find) where she went on about how she's gotten bad and singing and dancing...I wonder if she's been facing a lot of criticism behind the scenes and it's starting to take its toll.

[DonJuan]

She always has been scolded backstage (I dare to say she was scolded the most out of 10ki), so I doubt that's the reason behind it. 
 
I could see her graduating because it's no more fun for her, though. She's always been more of an airhead, in a weird way, and she might feel too many restrictions. 

[Hotaru]

Kind of feeling Oda or Iikubo. I think they'd both pursue other dreams within the entertainment business though.

[JPope]

Oda is the one member outside of the 12th gen that I feel certain will not leave anytime soon. She's the best singer in Morning Musume, but not good enough to be a solo artist, and I'm pretty sure she understands that. Unless she just tires of being in an idol group, Oda's best path to remaining a prominent face in the entertainment industry is to remain a member of MM for as long as possible. I think she's a lifer, tbh.

[yuzuriha]

I agree.
 
And yes, I realize Masaki has always been scolded but I'm thinking more like hardcore criticism and maybe she just can't take it anymore.  And yeah, that kind of goes with the not finding it fun anymore part.  I dunno.
 
I also don't really see Iikubo going anywhere any time soon.

[Derby]

[quote="yuzu"]
I also don't really see Iikubo going anywhere any time soon.
[/quote]
 
THEN WHO???

[Purin-chama]

Too bad none of them seem likely to have a scandal. It would've been easier to guess.

[Elpis]

I have no idea who will leave next but I don't think any of the 12ki are going to leave anytime soon. I can see Ogata leaving first out of the four of them.

[al kusanagi]

That one 12th gen member that is crack-skinny might leave because of health problems. Eat a damn sandwich, gurl!

[sayu1991]

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Al Kusanagi" data-cid="198400" data-time="1466717821">
That one 12th gen member that is crack-skinny might leave because of health problems. Eat a damn sandwich, gurl!</blockquote>


That would be Ogata. She wasn't so bad when she joined but she has definitely gotten worryingly thin since.

[showraniy]

Yeah, I hope she puts on some weight if she plans to stay in the group. :/ It's like no one has the balls to say something to the poor girl!