Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

In which we chat about Hello! Project. And TNX. And Nice Girl Project. Yup.

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DonJuan
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Re: Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

Post by DonJuan »

I don't think I should open up a new thread since it's just random mind rumbles but well, let's revive this thread! :lol:

It's 2022 now, and since the last post we had three graduations - Maa, Chii, and Kaede. None of the 9th-11th gen girls.

At this point I think Mizuki is going for Yuko's record of the oldest member to have been in the group. That would mean she won't graduate before late 2024. It's not impossible.
The next two, Ikuta and Ayumi, are the same as always. Ikuta has a business she could do fulltime, Ayumi... eh. She could do stageplays, even though MM hasn't been doing them lately. I see no rush with the two of them either, and in fact, I'd like to see Ayumi as leader.
Sakura, however... I feel like they've been taking a lot of pressure off of her, as she's also had problems I think. On top of that they're building up Rio as a vocal lead, Mei isn't half bad either, and there's still Miki who could take over some important lines - most of Masaki's lines went to the three of them after all. If the running audition brings a Wakana/Yagi Shiori type of singer then Sakura can easily leave. What for? She could easily have a solo career like Risamaru. Something Airi-like is out of reach though since Airi's career is mostly contacts that Sakura doesn't have. Comparing her to Karin would be interesting; Karin was always the more popular member but Sakura has the Morning Musume bonus.
Anyways, anyone of 9th-11th gen graduating wouldn't be a surprise.

Anyone after them however would be sad. 12th and 13th gen would be a lost tenure, 15th and 16th gen would be a friggin' shame.
As said before I see Miki as the next one to take up at least vocal leadership, and I think she's ambitious enough to go for actual group leadership as well. On top of that she had a great glow up since winning Solo Fes last year.
Maria would surprise me since she's such an H!P baby, but then again a tenure of 8 years is extremely long. That's longer than Kame or Yossy! I don't know what she could be doing outside MM since she's not done enough fashion to actually go into modeling, and I don't know if you can still make a career out of gravure anymore. When it comes to performances however, which is MM's biggest point, I wouldn't miss her too much. She's become a lot fiercer, that's true, but she also plateau'd and probably won't get any better at singing. It's not a situation like Kaede who could have easily taken up 2nd row singing and center dancing.
Akane, well, if she goes she goes. She won't get any further in MM, if anything she'll just be another Ikuta. I wish they would promote her photography stuff more, like make her produce a photobook or something. Then send her off to actually study it so she could make a career out of it. Her graduating would probably shock me the least out of everyone younger than 11th gen.

I'll leave out 15th/16th gen, but that leaves us with... Yokoyan.
Man, Yoko really is always somewhere inbetween. People have said she'd graduate next so many times now, because she had it hard and sometimes you could see it on her face, even through all her acting. But eh, I don't see her graduating yet. I feel like she's up for a few more years.

Therefore, my expectations:
2023 spring - Sakura
2023 fall - Akane
2024 spring - Ikuta
2024 fall/winter - Mizuki
HOWEVER, I could also see her leave at the end of an H!P concert, like the winter concerts 2025.
And yeah, Ayumi graduating 2025 is probably just my wish and not possible at all. At that point she'd be 28 and part of the group for 13 years, and that's just too much lol.

We do need back-to-back graduations to get anything moving however.
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JPope
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Re: Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

Post by JPope »

I think you're right about Fuku wanting to take over Yuko's oldest-serving-member title, and I seriously believe that Erina wants to break it with her. I'd be surprised if one leaves without the other at this point. I could then see Ayu wanting to stick around the requisite nine months to take the title for herself (if the suits allow it, which they probably won't.) None of these girls want to leave. They'll be allowed to stay as long as they want, so long as Fuku gets a piece of the oldest-member title.

Sakura is hard to gauge. She's a great idol singer, but I'm not sure her voice plays as well outside of that context, and I wonder if she has the personality to pull off even an M-line solo career. I think she's pretty comfortable where she is.

Miki seems keen to lead the group, so I'd be shocked if she were next to peace-out, and unless Haga gets engaged, she's sticking around as long as they let her.

Maria is where we disagree. She's become a decent singer, and while I used to think that H!P idols stopped really progressing by age 20, I'm not so sure anymore. As a stage performer, Maria is about the only current member that holds my attention for any length of time, so I hope it's not her. That said, I think she could have a decent post-MM career with a mix of modeling/gravure and light sports variety. Outside of the 15-16s, she's the one I least want to graduate, though.

If anyone leaves next year -- and I'm not convinced anyone will -- I think it's Yoko or Maria. Long-shot WTF candidate: Homare.
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Re: Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

Post by JPope »

DonJuan wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:01 pm It's 2022 now, and since the last post we had three graduations - Maa, Chii, and Kaede. None of the 9th-11th gen girls.
What gen is Maa again? :danceman:
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DonJuan
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Re: Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

Post by DonJuan »

...man. Maa is eternal! Generation-wide!

...nah, Imma see myself out lol.
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Re: Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

Post by Shoujo Q »

I can see either Ikuta and Mizuki graduating together or doing the Takahashi/Niigata route and that’s all I can see from the two of them.
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This is a place where a signature goes. Enjoy some Airi instead.
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DonJuan
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Re: Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

Post by DonJuan »

JPope wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:28 pmSakura is hard to gauge. She's a great idol singer, but I'm not sure her voice plays as well outside of that context, and I wonder if she has the personality to pull off even an M-line solo career. I think she's pretty comfortable where she is.

Sakura is absolutely comfortable, but sometimes I think among the 9th-11th gens she might be the last one to challenge herself. Also depending on what direction MM is going to go. If the next audition brings in a bunch of kids, like maybe 4 new members, and they change the group's style dramatically I can see her saying goodbye. That's... not very likely I know.
Maria is where we disagree. She's become a decent singer, and while I used to think that H!P idols stopped really progressing by age 20, I'm not so sure anymore. As a stage performer, Maria is about the only current member that holds my attention for any length of time, so I hope it's not her. That said, I think she could have a decent post-MM career with a mix of modeling/gravure and light sports variety. Outside of the 15-16s, she's the one I least want to graduate, though.
Oh, I do enjoy her on stage as well, more than everybody older than her. And I don't really want to see her go.
If anyone leaves next year -- and I'm not convinced anyone will -- I think it's Yoko or Maria. Long-shot WTF candidate: Homare.
I hope someone leaves next year. 15th gen has given the group some long needed fresh air, and with the new generation coming it's getting crowded again.
Homare would be surprising indeed but... hear me out. If she pulls a Kassa she's gonna go. I doubt it's gonna be next year though, if anything 2024 - when she's done with high school. She's a good dancer and if she wants to focus on that she should leave as soon as possible. I don't want her to go since she's my fav 15th gen member, but well.
Shoujo Q wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:58 amI can see either Ikuta and Mizuki graduating together or doing the Takahashi/Niigata route and that’s all I can see from the two of them.
A double graduation would be my dream but I think Up Front has stopped doing them. If they couldn't let Rina and Kana go together then nobody will.
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Re: Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

Post by JPope »

I could see them making an exception for Fuku/Ikuta if they do break Yuko's record together. It's definitely more likely that Erina leaves first, though, because I think the company holds Fuku in the same "H!P Legend" esteem as they did Momochi, who was allowed to be the last of the H!P Kids to graduate.
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DonJuan
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Re: Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

Post by DonJuan »

It would be kind of funny for them to graduate just after Mizuki broke Yuko's record but not Ikuta.
It's pretty obvious management loves Mizuki and that one would lead to another fandom meltdown lol
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Re: Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

Post by DonJuan »

Nearly posted this in the spam thread, but this one here might be just as good!

I keep track on member tenures in my own documents and there are a few things that I noticed.

Longest H!P tenure is still Momochi at 15 years and 27 days. Then come the last °C-ute girls at 15 years and 9 days. And then we already have Ikuta at 13 years and 2 months (not to mention that Ayumi is creeping up with 12 years and 5 months).

Which means Ikuta could break records if she sticks around until winter 2025.

I don't think she will, but spring 2024 is already full, and who knows if she's actually next to graduate from MM? Could as well be Ayumi or Sakura, or even someone from 12th gen. Or even Yokoyan!

In fact, Miki graduating doesn't seem so weird to me at the moment. Of course she can be the next leader, but she still has three people in front of her. She had a glow up in 2022, and she seemed ready for the next step, but rewatching the 2023 concerts she does feel a bit resigned - maybe because she realized that her kouhai will become first liners before her. They did do 12th gen dirty, but they also never stepped up on their own. If anything it will take until 2026 before Miki could become leader since they don't do double graduations anymore, and who knows if she's willing to stick around for that long?

It is, however, pretty much a given that Ayumi will be the oldest person to graduate from MM, as she is already 27 and IF she graduates this winter she'll be just a few months short of her 28th birthday. Well, that is if Ikuta doesn't stay more than half a year longer than her.
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Re: Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

Post by JPope »

The only MM graduations that would surprise me is 15th gen and newer. I expect Ayu or Erina to announce this year, if not both, unless both are gunning to surpass Yuko's oldest serving member title.
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Re: Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition

Post by kira »

When 9ki joined I never thought Erina would be the last one standing. I fully expected Mizuki to be.

Anyway I think Erina has some stuff outside of MM that she could pursue, which is why I still think she'd go first, but who knows... I definitely could see Miki going.
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